White Sox gain one win
White Sox fans received a slight boost of encouragement today when Baseball Prospectus adjusted their 2010 PECOTA projections.
Instead of the original 79-83 record and deadlock for second with the Tigers in the American League Central, the White Sox have been elevated to 80-82 and sole possession of second place behind the Twins. Minnesota gets the division nod with an 83-79 record.
I have a great deal of respect for the work done by Baseball Prospectus, but just a gut feeling tells me right now a win total of 88-to-90 games will be needed to win the AL Central. I think both the Twins and White Sox will have far better than average teams, even if that thought means an increase of 10 wins for the White Sox from 2009 to 2010. It’s certainly possible.
Remember, PECOTA literally was dead on with the 72-90 forecast prior to the 2007 season. But it missed by quite a bit during the White Sox 99-win World Series championship campaign in 2005.
Meanwhile, this present PECOTA adjustment really hit hardest on the Rays. Sure, they still are projected to win 92 games and finish 22 games above .500, but they went from the best team in baseball in the original projection to out of the playoffs in this one.